A number that rises can make your stomach tighten. So let’s slow down. This study counted confirmed diagnoses in one place. It did not find a cause, and it cannot predict any child’s life.
- The study looked at one place: Haute-Garonne.
- It counted diagnoses already confirmed by age 8.
- It cannot tell us why the number rose.
Questions you can take with you
You do not need to become an expert. These questions can help you talk with a professional or support provider.
- Does this number describe my area, or only the place studied?
- Are we talking about diagnosed children, or every autistic child?
- What support is available while a family waits for answers?
Want the study details?Sample, method and evidence type
- Place
- Haute-Garonne
- Age counted
- By age 8
- Period
- 2003–2024
Read on for what was studied, what was found and what remains uncertain.
First, take a breath
A rising number can sound frightening. It can make a parent wonder whether something sudden has happened. That is not what this study shows.
The researchers counted children in one French area whose autism diagnosis had already been confirmed and recorded by age 8. They did not discover a cause, and they did not count every autistic person in France.
What the researchers actually counted
The study used the Haute-Garonne child disability registry. It brings together several records and includes only diagnoses confirmed by a health professional. The team followed the number recorded at age 8 from 2003 to 2024.
Using the diagnostic categories available across that long period, the figure rose from about 2 in every 1,000 eight-year-olds in 2003 to about 14 in every 1,000 in 2024. For autism alone, the 2024 figure was about 13 in every 1,000. These are recorded diagnoses, not a test of every child.
The children being noticed have changed too
The recent part of the study described 625 children born from 2014 to 2016. Nearly seven in ten did not have an intellectual disability. That does not mean they had no support needs. It means more children whose autism may once have been missed are now appearing in the records.
The middle age at diagnosis was 4. But about one child in five was diagnosed at 7 or 8. Even inside this registry, some families waited much longer than others for an explanation.
Why did the number rise? We do not know
More awareness, changing diagnostic language, different professional practices and better access to support may all affect the count. This study cannot cleanly separate those changes from a possible change in the underlying number of autistic people.
The honest answer is simple: more diagnoses were recorded. The study cannot tell us why. Its value is helping services prepare for more families — not predicting what one child will need or become.
Limitations to keep in view
- The registry covers Haute-Garonne, not all of France.
- It misses people diagnosed after age 8 and children not yet identified.
- Diagnostic language and practices changed over 21 years, so the study cannot explain the rise with one cause.
Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders in French Children Aged 8
Delobel-Ayoub M, Abid A, Klapouszczak D, et al.
Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · 2026
This article provides general information and does not replace individualized medical, psychological or educational advice.